The change curve: stages of change and what helps
The change curve describes how people react emotionally to a change: first with shock and denial, then with a low point where the old way no longer works and the new one is not yet routine, and finally with experimenting and integration. It goes back to the stages of grief described by Elisabeth Kübler-Ross. For managers it is a good explanation of why a team that agreed at first suddenly pushes back. It does not provide a plan. That is why I connect it with the ADKAR model, which shows what helps in each stage.
What is the change curve?
The change curve plots a person’s morale and performance over the course of a change. Time runs along the horizontal axis, wellbeing or perceived competence along the vertical one. The line drops after the announcement, reaches a low point and then rises above the starting level if the change succeeds.
Its origin is not in management. In 1969 the psychiatrist Elisabeth Kübler-Ross described five stages that dying patients go through in her book “On Death and Dying”. The model was later applied to loss in general and eventually to change in organisations. Prosci, whose methodology I work with, describes this transfer and its limits in an article on the Kübler-Ross change curve in change management1.
The idea behind it is simple: a change takes something away from people, even when it is objectively an improvement. Familiar routines, certainty, sometimes status. At first they react to it as they would to a loss.
What are the stages of the change curve?
There are two common versions. The original by Kübler-Ross has five stages. In German-speaking countries the seven-stage model by Richard K. Streich is also well known; it splits the curve more finely and fits it more closely to the world of work.
| Kübler-Ross | Streich | What you observe |
|---|---|---|
| Denial | Shock, rejection | “This does not affect us.” “The old process worked fine.” |
| Anger | Rejection | Criticism of the project, the leadership, the software; resistance in meetings |
| Bargaining | Rational acceptance | “Can we not do this next year?” People look for exceptions |
| Depression | Emotional acceptance | Withdrawal, frustration, falling productivity; the “valley of despair” |
| Acceptance | Learning, insight, integration | Trying things out, first successes, the new way becomes normal |
The difference between rational and emotional acceptance that Streich works out matters. A team can agree in a meeting because the arguments are convincing and still keep working with the old list the next day. Learning only starts once people have also accepted emotionally that the old way is over.
ADKAR shows what helps in each stage
The curve describes reactions. It does not say what a manager can do. This is where the ADKAR model helps, because Prosci maps each stage of the curve to an ADKAR element. That turns an observation into an action:
| Stage | What is usually missing (ADKAR) | What helps |
|---|---|---|
| Denial | Awareness | Explain the reasons, through the sponsor: why are we changing, and what happens if we do not? |
| Anger | Desire | Listen, take objections seriously, answer “what is in it for me?”; the direct manager talks to the team |
| Bargaining | Knowledge | Say clearly what is fixed and what can still be shaped; show what the new way of working looks like |
| Depression | Ability | Practise on real cases, contacts within the team, time to learn; adjust productivity expectations |
| Acceptance | Reinforcement | Make successes visible, measure usage, address relapses into the old way |
Resistance in the anger stage is normal and a sign that the change has landed. Suppressing it only pushes it further down the line. And the valley gets deeper and longer when people are left alone in it. Most relapses into old habits happen in this stage.
What does the change curve look like in a software rollout?
When a new system such as a CRM is introduced, the curve can often be observed well, only it runs at a different time for each group.
After the announcement many people are neutral or curious; the system is still far away. Rejection usually comes when things get concrete: in the first demos, when field sales see that visit reports will live in the system instead of their own spreadsheet. The valley typically lies in the weeks after go-live. The old spreadsheet is switched off, everything takes longer in the new system and the first mistakes happen in front of customers.
This is exactly what the hypercare phase after go-live is for: contacts are quickly reachable, feedback is taken seriously and small improvements come fast. That shortens the valley. A common mistake is the opposite: the project team disbands the day after go-live because technically everything is done.
In large initiatives, groups and countries also stand at different points at different times. In a global rollout with countries in the US, Asia and Europe, like the one I supported for Salesforce Sales Cloud, a single look at “the mood in the project” does not help much. What makes sense is an assessment per group and country, ideally linked to the stakeholder analysis.
The curve is a basis for conversation, not a diagnosis
The curve is popular because it is simple. But it has weaknesses, which Prosci names clearly in the article mentioned above:
What the curve is good for
- Explaining to managers why support drops first
- Treating resistance as a normal reaction
- Planning for the valley after go-live instead of being surprised
What it does not do
- People jump between stages or skip some
- It comes from grief research, not every change is a loss
- It does not say which action helps when
- It describes individuals, not a plan for the organisation
The curve therefore works as a basis for conversation, not as a diagnosis. In a workshop with managers it is useful to draw it and ask: where is your team right now? The answer is usually more interesting than the curve itself, because several people in the same department often stand at different points. Then ADKAR takes over to find out what is missing.
Plan for the valley
Plan for the valley. If you know that morale and productivity drop after go-live, you can provide contacts, adjust targets for the first weeks and explain to management why the first figures look worse. Ask each group where it stands instead of choosing the same action for everyone. And connect the curve with a model that derives actions; the basics are in What is change management?. In Salesforce programmes I do this together with Fabian Kramer, see Salesforce change management consulting.
Prosci and ADKAR are registered trademarks of Prosci, Inc.
Sources1
Frequently asked questions
What is the change curve?
The change curve is a model that shows the typical emotional reactions of people to a change as a curve over time. Morale and performance drop first, reach a low point and rise again as the new way of working is adopted.
What are the stages of the change curve?
In the Kübler-Ross version five: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. Streich's model names seven: shock, rejection, rational acceptance, emotional acceptance, learning, insight and integration.
What is the valley of despair in change management?
It is the low point of the curve: the change has arrived, the old way no longer works and the new one is not yet routine. Morale and often productivity drop in this stage, and this is where people decide whether to stay with the change.
How long do the stages of the change curve last?
There is no fixed duration. It depends on how much daily work changes and how well people are supported. Different groups in the same company are often at different points of the curve.
What is the criticism of the change curve?
It comes from research on grief and assumes a fixed sequence. People react differently, jump between stages or skip some. The curve also does not say what a manager should do.